Send via SMS

Lord Admiral Card Club Blog

This weblog is a diary of the backstory to the Lord Admiral Radio podcast.

My Photo
Name:Sean

Thursday, April 27, 2006

Columbo's Flopped Nuts

We received a lot of great feedback on Columbo's latest OMM on the show.

From Rachel
Ok, if you guys can change the rules, so can I. I'd finally decided to chime in on one of Columbo's mysteries when you two said you were going to play the answer (going oldskool, the way I used to like it). So I'm sitting here with my iPod paused to give you my opinion.

First: Columbo's table image. If he's been taking a lot of unchallenged pots preflop on this tight-tight table that's gone by the wayside, then he's probably got a rep as a stack bully; the raisers may not think hehas significant postflop skills.

Second: We know this is a cash game, but we don't know how much it's for. If this is a ten cent/25 table, these monkeys could have anything(but why would it ever have been as tight as he says). If it's a $2/$4table, then that explains a lot of weak-tight play. If it's $5/$10 ormore, I think seriously about capitalizing what I've already taken off the table and not raising the way I should here.

Third: That's right, raise. Two of the three midposition players are all-in already, and I put the one who isn't on Ace-three--hopefully nothearts, but I think he's got the wheel and wants to deal some punishmenthimself. As for his wingmen, I put both of them on the draws. Pot oddscover up a wealth of sins, and if these guys have been getting whittle ddown, then a family pot is where they'll make their stands and take thechance to quad or triple up.

Oh, but there's just one more thing, ma'am.

Columbo's going to wind up putting all his profit into this pot if he calls. So this is definitely not a weak call situation. It's purelyraise-fold. That's where the bet size issue comes in. With this manypeople in the pot, holdem can feel like Omaha, only there's no redrawfor our hero. So if he wants to play Sklansky's rules, he must punishthe draw. If he wants to play my father's, he has to get out with gas money plus, and fold the nuts.

Me, I'm a Sklansky type of gal. Put the last out-of-position guy all in.

from David

I’ll be in vegas from July 8 thru the 18th. However I’ll be “working” on the 8th, so I don’t know if I can make it.

In any case, please let me know about any meetups, or a less formal meetup later in the week.

For columbo, I think it’s good to shove because you are 50-50 against the main pot, but you are better than 50-50 against the side pot. And you don’t know whether the heart or the pair kills you on the side pot. Or were there two guys with a lot of money left?

Wow… his clips from the show were really funny today.

fromVik


Congratulation on 3 amazing shows!

Over the last 2 weeks i traveled to Vancover then Whistler for a vacation, Canada is a really nice place, except for all those drug addicts on the street. Listening to show 70 right now, enjoyed columbos 66 vs AT solution. Mark (i think) agreed with an email that said he felt Columbo let him down however if the player flipped AT up at that point shouldnt Columbo call? I think he should.

During my stay in Vancover I bought Annie Dukes "How i bluffed Flirted and won millions" (the title was somthing along those lines) Its basically broken up into her story and her playing in a WSOP final table omaha game, with some extra bits here and there. The ending chapter or two is her playing in the 2004 TOC which is great
regardless of knowing what happens or not.

I would recommend the book to anybody that enjoys Poker storys, there is good strategy for new players in the back of the book, how to play different games (again at the back of the back) and some slightly advanced tips in general spread throughout the plot. If you guys have read it id like to hear what you think about the book, if not I recommend it!

My opinion about Columbos play

45BBs to you about 130 more.

If im not mistakes Columbo has the nuts with a better holding being 36of hearts which would be the worst cards to be up against however if they have that i dont care... GOOD GAME!

Tighty McTight, therefore im assuming sets are there if there are 2 sets out
there the chance to fill up has gone done which is good for columbo.
Folding is not an option. I would move all in here i dont think there are
16 outs to kill him because if its set and set and flush draw (which im assuming
it is) outs have been killed.

Im not going to do the heavy math i would move all in here!

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ah... just heard the answer... i did not realize you would broadcast it right away,
good move columbo!

Looking foward to the next episode

|


Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Poker Podcast Challenge

It's official - we're in the Poker Podcast Challenge!
Check it out here:
http://www.podcastpokerchallenge.com/

|


Sunday, April 16, 2006

Some Great emails...

from PhlyersFan

Hi guys -

Long-time listener, and I love your podcast. Thanks for all of the work you put into producing Card Club! I look forward to listening to it each week while driving out to the card room.

I have a question about playing against sets, and would love to hear what you guys think. (Listener feedback also welcome!)

There's a mantra around bloggerville that "sets are gold."

I tend to agree. A well-concealed set usually pays off big.But how do you defend against them?

Is there any way to see them coming? (It's obviously difficult, which is why sets are gold!) This is how most of my losses to sets go.

I flop TPTK and bet or raise. I get called. Normally, at that point I'm putting my opponent on TP-weaker kicker. On the turn, I bet out. I either get called, or popped back with a raise. (Sometimes my opponent waits till the river to pop back). If the card that came inducing the raise doesn't coordinate the board or match up with typical hole card holdings for a 2 pair, I still think I'm good. At showdown, I'm no good, falling victim to a set made from a low to mid pocket pair.

Of course, there is a ton of information that goes into each street's decision, including any notes I might have on the player, stack sizes relative to the blinds, etc. I can usually smell a trap pretty well, but there are so many players that overplay their top pair, weak kicker that generally, it pays to grit your teeth and push forward. On the other hand, I can be accused of overplaying TPTK in these cases.

How do you tell when you're up against a set? Is there anything that tips you off?

I've cross-posted this question to my blog at http://www.hellaholdem.com.

Thanks!

Shelly aka phlyersphan

from David


Can’t access the web at work, but I can access email…
Even given Columbo’s clues, I think this is a fold, given that an all-in raise costs you half your stack (calling and leaving your opp. With enough chips to only cover ¼ of the pot is a definite no).
Let’s say your opponent will raise with any two cards 10 or higher (AKQJT). The odds are (20/52) * (16/51) of getting two unpaired cards that high, so about 12% of the time he’ll have that in his hand. There are (3/51) ways of being dealt any pair; that’s under 6% odds.
So even if your opponents overplay any big cards, they are only twice as likely to have that than to have a pair!
So.. 2/3 of the time he’ll have overcards and you’re 55% to win.
1/3 of the time he’ll have a pair. We’ll discount the odds that he also has 6s, and say there are 4 pairs that you dominate (assuming he’ll raise with cards as crummy as 22 – you’ll be 90% to win) and 8 pairs that are higher than yours (10% to win).
Let’s do this Harrington style.
2/3 * .55 = 36%
1/9 * .90 = 10%
2/9 * .1 = 2%
So you’ll win 48% of the time. You’re a slight underdog even with the big range of hands he’d play.
Given that you have reads on these poor players, wait for a better opportunity.
(I would never post this in 2+2 cuz my math is probably suspect)

|


Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Holy feedback Batman

We've got a ton of great emails the last few days. Thank-you everyone for your contributions.

I am currently in San Diego - a beautiful part of the world even for an East Coast guy at heart.

On the way down in the plane I had a chance to catch-up on my fave podcasts. I was finally able to give due listening time to the guys at Ante Up. I really enjoyed their show and love their conversational approach. Definitely in the same spirit as our show. I've said it before and I'll say it again - there is always room for good poker podcasts.

I am back in TO this weekend and all plans are go for another show.

Here is just one of the cool messages we received this week - this one from Pocono Drew...

Sean & Stacks,

First of all, I must tell you how much I enjoy your poker podcasts. It is nice to hear "regular" guys talking about their poker experiences and strategies. You both add some fresh insight to the topic and I can easily relate as I am in the same boat as you guys. (30's married, kids)

You had an interesting show recently about going on tilt. I have been a winning NLHE player for the past 18 months or so and I keep track of my online sessions carefully. One thing I noticed is that when I was having a losing session, I would play too long to try and "catch up". This would usually just get me stuck deeper as I was not playing my A game and making too many risky moves. This would lead to near catastrophic one-day losses (sometimes up to 30 % of my bankroll) I have since added a rigid stop-loss number. When I reach this specific number (say 5-10% of my bankroll) I call it a night. I find that I can usually make it back within the next couple of days and it prevents me from playing on tilt. As Sklansky has said in many of his books, it is all one long game.

Keep up the great work and keep those podcasts comin'.

-Pocono Drew

|


Sunday, February 19, 2006

emails from listeners...

I thought I'd share the full emails of those I read "on air" for show 63...

From Denver Steve:
Hey CC guys,
This was on the evening news yesterday here in Denver. The following synopsis was posted on Denver Post Online here (
http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_3506780 ). I know you've mentioned things earlier about not seeing home games busted, and that still holds true. This was a couple of parlors that brought dealers down from a few mountain towns that allow limited stakes gambling. Still thought you might be interested if someone hasn't already forwarded it.
DENVER
41 arrested in raids on clubs' poker games
State gambling investigators and Denver police arrested 41 people in connection with illegal gambling and seized almost $9,000 in cash at raids on poker games at two social clubs, the Colorado Bureau of Investigation announced Monday.
A three-month investigation conducted by the CBI led to the arrests Saturday at Hop Sing Tong, 4130 E. Colfax Ave., and Asian International, 7520 E. Colfax Ave.
The Colorado Division of Gaming learned that licensed dealers were involved in illegal poker games and notified the CBI in November, according to Bob Brown, agent in charge.
It is illegal for licensed gaming professionals to engage in poker games at nonlicensed locations, he said.


From Loren NY,

Hi Card Clubbers,
This is not a bad beat story. It's just a hypothetical hand. But I find this to be one of the hardest situations that I face in playing no-limit and was curious if you had any advice...
AA is a great hand pre-flop. We all know that. But how about after the flop. Some people get married to it, but most good players can lay it down when there is danger on the board, or when facing a huge reraise. But what do you do when facing a relatively safe board and a smooth caller?
Example:
You get AA (both red), under the gun, and you raise pre flop 3x the BB. You get a few callers and the flop is Js 9s 2c.
You don't like the flush draw, or the straight draw. So you make a bet. Maybe pot sized bet, or even more, and you get 1 caller. Someone you don't know and don't have a read on yet. Someone new to the table.
Turn is 5c. Now what? What did he call with? A draw? Maybe top pair? Or worse, a set or 2 pair. You have to fire again with your over pair. No free cards with so many draws out there, but what if he smooth calls again? How much trouble are you in ?
What do you do if the river is a blank? Do you fire again, with your 1
pair, hoping that he had a missed draw, or top pair? It seems certain that if you show weakness by checking he would be wise to come over the top, all-in.
So, whether you check or bet, when he then does move all in, can you get away from your AA. Were you crushed the whole way by a small set or 2 pair, or did he miss his draw?
I find these kinds of situations the worst ways to lose money. You have to bet to chase out the draws, thinking you are good with your over pair, but with the repeated smooth calls, what can you do on the river?
As always, thanks for a great show...
Loren in New York


Thanks very much to our listeners for the comments and feedback.

|


Card Club on Lord Admiral Radio


Wow - thanks to Fred Bals for the heads-up on the Tivo decision to include podcast feeds.

Now our American friends can "see" us on the boob tube.

If only the Canadian PVR providers would jump on the wagon.

|


Sunday, February 12, 2006

Lou's email

More email for the show.
Brent and I received this email from Lou. We throw out our unworthy advice on this week's show.

Sean and Brent,

I sincerely look forward to your podcast every week! Keep up the
great work. If either of you make it out to Foxwoods in Connecticut,
please give me a heads up. I'd love to buy a round a drinks, and take
some money from the fish at the $4/8 game.

I have a question, though. Do you have any advice about breaking
through or staying positive during losing streaks? I love to gamble,
and poker is just one such outlet. Lately, I've been getting killed.
Bad beats, missing big draws with overlays, and going on tilt have all
contributed to losses. I'm even on a losing streak in my fun, loose,
micro-limit weekly dealer's choice home game where we play all kinds
of crazy wild-card games. I'm going crazy, so please help me!

Thanks,
Lou

|


Columbo Speaks

Columbo sent in a reply to our listener, Brandon's, hand...

Last weeks mystery hand:

6k in chips , 100/200 early and avg stack sizes


In BB with 5 limpers. This is a pot size of 1000 or 1100 before you bet.

sees AA

Raise to 1200 (a pot size pre-flop raise). I can see this, you are looking for a single caller.

1 caller (perfect)

9TJ rainbow (nasty board though, not because of the straight, but because of what I call TRAFFIC. He hit this board or he had no business in the hand. So now, how HARD did he hit it?)

Check, bet 1200, call <- CHECK? CHECK? ok, that is not so good unless you are going to let go of the hand, in which case its fine, but very weak. But then the CALL? WHY? WHAT? HOW?

3 (i.e. blank)

Check, all-in. (of course, he figures you for a sucker now)

what to do?

FOLD



Early on , players are looking to double up, not push you with marginal hands. He has at least 2 pair, if not KQ. this is an easy fold.

|


Sunday, December 18, 2005

Hold Em Odds Spreadsheet

As promised in Show 55 here you will find my spreadsheet for Holdem Odds.

I expect to discuss its use in show 56.
holdemodds.xls

|