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Lord Admiral Card Club Blog

This weblog is a diary of the backstory to the Lord Admiral Radio podcast.

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Thursday, April 27, 2006

Columbo's Flopped Nuts

We received a lot of great feedback on Columbo's latest OMM on the show.

From Rachel
Ok, if you guys can change the rules, so can I. I'd finally decided to chime in on one of Columbo's mysteries when you two said you were going to play the answer (going oldskool, the way I used to like it). So I'm sitting here with my iPod paused to give you my opinion.

First: Columbo's table image. If he's been taking a lot of unchallenged pots preflop on this tight-tight table that's gone by the wayside, then he's probably got a rep as a stack bully; the raisers may not think hehas significant postflop skills.

Second: We know this is a cash game, but we don't know how much it's for. If this is a ten cent/25 table, these monkeys could have anything(but why would it ever have been as tight as he says). If it's a $2/$4table, then that explains a lot of weak-tight play. If it's $5/$10 ormore, I think seriously about capitalizing what I've already taken off the table and not raising the way I should here.

Third: That's right, raise. Two of the three midposition players are all-in already, and I put the one who isn't on Ace-three--hopefully nothearts, but I think he's got the wheel and wants to deal some punishmenthimself. As for his wingmen, I put both of them on the draws. Pot oddscover up a wealth of sins, and if these guys have been getting whittle ddown, then a family pot is where they'll make their stands and take thechance to quad or triple up.

Oh, but there's just one more thing, ma'am.

Columbo's going to wind up putting all his profit into this pot if he calls. So this is definitely not a weak call situation. It's purelyraise-fold. That's where the bet size issue comes in. With this manypeople in the pot, holdem can feel like Omaha, only there's no redrawfor our hero. So if he wants to play Sklansky's rules, he must punishthe draw. If he wants to play my father's, he has to get out with gas money plus, and fold the nuts.

Me, I'm a Sklansky type of gal. Put the last out-of-position guy all in.

from David

I’ll be in vegas from July 8 thru the 18th. However I’ll be “working” on the 8th, so I don’t know if I can make it.

In any case, please let me know about any meetups, or a less formal meetup later in the week.

For columbo, I think it’s good to shove because you are 50-50 against the main pot, but you are better than 50-50 against the side pot. And you don’t know whether the heart or the pair kills you on the side pot. Or were there two guys with a lot of money left?

Wow… his clips from the show were really funny today.

fromVik


Congratulation on 3 amazing shows!

Over the last 2 weeks i traveled to Vancover then Whistler for a vacation, Canada is a really nice place, except for all those drug addicts on the street. Listening to show 70 right now, enjoyed columbos 66 vs AT solution. Mark (i think) agreed with an email that said he felt Columbo let him down however if the player flipped AT up at that point shouldnt Columbo call? I think he should.

During my stay in Vancover I bought Annie Dukes "How i bluffed Flirted and won millions" (the title was somthing along those lines) Its basically broken up into her story and her playing in a WSOP final table omaha game, with some extra bits here and there. The ending chapter or two is her playing in the 2004 TOC which is great
regardless of knowing what happens or not.

I would recommend the book to anybody that enjoys Poker storys, there is good strategy for new players in the back of the book, how to play different games (again at the back of the back) and some slightly advanced tips in general spread throughout the plot. If you guys have read it id like to hear what you think about the book, if not I recommend it!

My opinion about Columbos play

45BBs to you about 130 more.

If im not mistakes Columbo has the nuts with a better holding being 36of hearts which would be the worst cards to be up against however if they have that i dont care... GOOD GAME!

Tighty McTight, therefore im assuming sets are there if there are 2 sets out
there the chance to fill up has gone done which is good for columbo.
Folding is not an option. I would move all in here i dont think there are
16 outs to kill him because if its set and set and flush draw (which im assuming
it is) outs have been killed.

Im not going to do the heavy math i would move all in here!

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Ah... just heard the answer... i did not realize you would broadcast it right away,
good move columbo!

Looking foward to the next episode

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Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Poker Podcast Challenge

It's official - we're in the Poker Podcast Challenge!
Check it out here:
http://www.podcastpokerchallenge.com/

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Sunday, April 16, 2006

Some Great emails...

from PhlyersFan

Hi guys -

Long-time listener, and I love your podcast. Thanks for all of the work you put into producing Card Club! I look forward to listening to it each week while driving out to the card room.

I have a question about playing against sets, and would love to hear what you guys think. (Listener feedback also welcome!)

There's a mantra around bloggerville that "sets are gold."

I tend to agree. A well-concealed set usually pays off big.But how do you defend against them?

Is there any way to see them coming? (It's obviously difficult, which is why sets are gold!) This is how most of my losses to sets go.

I flop TPTK and bet or raise. I get called. Normally, at that point I'm putting my opponent on TP-weaker kicker. On the turn, I bet out. I either get called, or popped back with a raise. (Sometimes my opponent waits till the river to pop back). If the card that came inducing the raise doesn't coordinate the board or match up with typical hole card holdings for a 2 pair, I still think I'm good. At showdown, I'm no good, falling victim to a set made from a low to mid pocket pair.

Of course, there is a ton of information that goes into each street's decision, including any notes I might have on the player, stack sizes relative to the blinds, etc. I can usually smell a trap pretty well, but there are so many players that overplay their top pair, weak kicker that generally, it pays to grit your teeth and push forward. On the other hand, I can be accused of overplaying TPTK in these cases.

How do you tell when you're up against a set? Is there anything that tips you off?

I've cross-posted this question to my blog at http://www.hellaholdem.com.

Thanks!

Shelly aka phlyersphan

from David


Can’t access the web at work, but I can access email…
Even given Columbo’s clues, I think this is a fold, given that an all-in raise costs you half your stack (calling and leaving your opp. With enough chips to only cover ¼ of the pot is a definite no).
Let’s say your opponent will raise with any two cards 10 or higher (AKQJT). The odds are (20/52) * (16/51) of getting two unpaired cards that high, so about 12% of the time he’ll have that in his hand. There are (3/51) ways of being dealt any pair; that’s under 6% odds.
So even if your opponents overplay any big cards, they are only twice as likely to have that than to have a pair!
So.. 2/3 of the time he’ll have overcards and you’re 55% to win.
1/3 of the time he’ll have a pair. We’ll discount the odds that he also has 6s, and say there are 4 pairs that you dominate (assuming he’ll raise with cards as crummy as 22 – you’ll be 90% to win) and 8 pairs that are higher than yours (10% to win).
Let’s do this Harrington style.
2/3 * .55 = 36%
1/9 * .90 = 10%
2/9 * .1 = 2%
So you’ll win 48% of the time. You’re a slight underdog even with the big range of hands he’d play.
Given that you have reads on these poor players, wait for a better opportunity.
(I would never post this in 2+2 cuz my math is probably suspect)

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